Objectives of the Course
This course will help you initiate and lead future-oriented management activities in your organisation. Such activities will make the organisation more aware of the future uncertainties and enable it to manage those uncertainties through a continuous process of organisational learning.
This course will provide a number of frameworks for future-oriented management. Some of these frameworks will emphasise the need to prepare an organisation for the future that appears inevitable. Some other frameworks will emphasise the need to prepare an organisation to face the uncertainties associated with the future. Yet other frameworks will emphasise the need for an organisation to shape or create its own desired future through appropriate interactive processes.
The course will explore some possible difficulties and the forces of obstruction to effective future-oriented management. Ways of overcoming these will be discussed. Operational issues involved in planning for different types of organisation functioning in different environments will also be discussed. The course will encourage you to adopt a systemic view of your organisation and prepare you to play a leading role in the process of organisational learning.
Course Contents
| Session 1 | Planning frameworks, historical evolution of planning
Understanding the key issues in a future-oriented management practice; planning frameworks (forecast-based planning, scenario planning, strategic planning, interactive planning); planning vocabulary. |
| Session 2 | Planning concepts
Guide:
Ackoff, 1981 (Ch.3: Our changing concept of planning, pp. 51-76)
Makridakis, 1990 (Ch. 6: Business Firms and Managers in the 21st Century, pp. 103-120; Ch.7: Planning for the Future, pp. 121-141)
De Geus, 1997 (Ch.2: The memory of the future, pp.30-47; Ch.3: Tools for foresight, pp. 48-69)
Planning approaches (reactivism, inactivism, preactivism, interativism); types of planning (operational, tactical, strategic, normative); proximal and distal benefits of planning; planning as learning; planning as strategic conversation. |
| Session 3 | Forecast-based planning
Guide:
Makridakis, 1990 (Ch. 3: Predicting the Future: Myths and Reality, pp. 49-68; Ch. 4: Identifying Megapatterns: Trends vs. Cycles, pp.69-89; Ch. 5: The Emerging and Long-term Future, pp. 90-101)
Forecast accuracy; short-term, medium-term, and long-term predictions; cyclical changes; long-term equilibrium; the role of technological and societal changes in shaping the distant and the faraway future. |
| Session 4 | Forecast-based planning: Issues, benefits, difficulties |
| Session 5 | Scenario planning
Guide:
Schnaars, 1989 (Ch. 11: Strategic Alternatives to Forecasting, pp. 161-185)
Ringland, 1998 (Ch.1 – Ch.5; Ch. 7 – Ch. 8)
Forecasting and uncertainty; alternatives to forecasting; use of scenarios in planning; effects of using scenarios; how scenarios can transform a business; methods of developing scenarios; methods of presenting scenarios; linking scenarios to strategic planning; scenarios for learning. |
| Session 6 | Scenario planning
Case Study:
Scenario Planning at British Airways—A Case Study [Moyer, K. (1996). Long Range Planning, 29, February.] (Also reproduced in Ringland, 1998, pp. 261-279.) |
| Session 7 | Strategic planning
Guide:
Steiner, 1979 (Ch.8 – Ch.12)
Mintzberg, H. (1994). The fall and rise of strategic planning. Harvard Business Review, January/February. Pp. 107-114.
Situation audit; developing purpose, mission, and objectives; formulating programmes of action; emergence of new paradigms of strategic management. |
| Session 8 | Strategic planning
Mission statements, SNAC Analysis |
| Session 9 | Interactive planning
Guide:
Ackoff (1994) (Ch.1: The Emerging Concept of an Enterprise, pp.3-35; Ch.2: The Enterprise and its Stakeholders, pp.36-66)
Ackoff, 1981 (Ch.4 – Ch.11, pp.79-250)
Principles (participation, continuity, co-ordination, integration) and the 5 phases of the IP cycle: (i) Formulating the mess (Understanding the system in focus — SWOT analysis, SNAC analysis, industry analysis, SBU analysis, obstructions to development, reference scenario, i.e., the future the s-i-f is in) |
| Session 10 | Interactive planning (continued)
(ii) Ends Planning (Types of end — goal, objectives, and ideals; identifying a mission, designing an ideal system, constrained and unconstrained designs, design of structures and systems); (iii) Means Planning (Planning gap, alternatives to fill it, questioning assumptions, removing constraints, evaluating alternatives — use of experiments, mathematical models, simulation, and gaming); (iv) Resource Planning (Types of resource — inputs, facilities, personnel, and money; informed use of techniques and models); (v) Implementation and Control (Implementation and control of plans, implementation and control of the IP process, planning department, planning, skills participation, and continuity). |
| Session 11 | Planning as strategic conversation
Guide:
Flood, R. L. & Jackson, M. C. (1991). Creative Problem Solving: Total Systems Intervention, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. Chapter 6
Conversation for action and conversation for possibility; planning as strategic conversation; models for organising strategic conversations. |
| Session 12 | Case Study:
Strategic Conversations as a Means for Organizational Change: A Case Study (Uwe Weissflog) |
| Session 13 | Difficulties in planning
Guide:
Makridakis, 1990 (Ch.11: Avoiding or delaying failure, pp. 203-226; Ch.12: Achieving and sustaining success, pp. 227-249)
Mintzberg, H. (1993). The pitfalls of strategic planning, California Management Review, 36(1). Pp. 32-47.
Steiner, 1979 (Ch.18: Dangers to avoid in strategic planning, pp.287-298)
Factors that contribute to long-term success and failure; Obstruction to an effective future-oriented management practice; pitfalls of planning. |
| Sessions 14 and 15 | Review and discussion on assignment |
Evaluation Criteria
| Two Quizes (20% each) | 40% |
| Assignment (see below) | 20% |
| End-term Examination | 40% |
Assignment: Each student to create a blog site, with some entries (say, about five entries) on topics related to corporate planning. Deadline: 2:00 p.m., September 3, 2008. Avoid Plagiarism
Texts
ACKOFF, R. L. (1994). The Democratic Corporation.
ACKOFF, R. L. (1981). Creating the Corporate Future.
FLOOD, R. L., & JACKSON, M. C. (1991). Creative Problem Solving: Total Systems Intervention.
GEUS, A. DE. (1997). The Living Company: Growth, Learning, and Longevity in Business.
HAMEL, G., & PRAHALAD, C. K. (1994). Competing for the Future.
HEIJDEN, K. VAN DER. (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation.
MAKRIDAKIS, S. G. (1990). Forecasting, Planning, and Strategy for the 21st Century.
NAISBITT, J., & ABURDENCE, P. (1990). Megatrends 2000.
RAMASWAMY, V. S., & NAMAKUMARI, S. (1999). Strategic Planning, Formulation of Corporate Strategy: The Indian Context.
RINGLAND, G. (1998). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future.
SCHNAARS, S. P. (1989). Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change.
STEINER, G. A. (1979). Strategic Planning: What Every Manager Must Know.
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